TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “iraq · france · 22” (3 markets)
Top terms: iraqfrance2206drawwin
- ★ Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?7.5¢ YES · $28.7k 24h
- Will France win on 2026-06-22?88.5¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?3.1¢ YES · $23.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.090 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.724 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-draw · fresh · feed 11s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -21.05%
realized vol (ann.)
29.60%
max drawdown
11.76%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.76%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-21.05%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -21.05%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →