TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · te · ivoire” (10 markets)
Top terms: ecuadorteivoirebothteamsmarkets
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score41.5¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?29.5¢ YES · $2.21M 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?33.5¢ YES · $243.7k 24h
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?37.5¢ YES · $518.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?17.5¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
- ★ Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.559.5¢ YES · $114.5k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.530.5¢ YES · $59.9k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?6.7¢ YES · $26.6k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score27.5¢ YES · $177.2k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score52.5¢ YES · $217.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.858 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.769 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.723 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.721 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.702 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.687 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.669 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.550 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-total-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1715
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-total-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →