TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · te · ivoire” (10 markets)
Top terms: ecuadorteivoirebothteamsmarkets
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score41.5¢ YES · $30.7k 24h
- Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?29.5¢ YES · $2.22M 24h
- ★ Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?33.5¢ YES · $252.0k 24h
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?37.5¢ YES · $541.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?18.5¢ YES · $29.0k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.559.5¢ YES · $117.2k 24h
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.530.5¢ YES · $63.8k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?6.5¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score29.5¢ YES · $249.5k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score53.5¢ YES · $256.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.820 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.808 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.808 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.805 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.802 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.719 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.703 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.680 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-draw · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.08%
realized vol (ann.)
29.60%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.08%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +3.08%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-civ-ecu-2026-06-14-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →