TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “canada · qatar · markets” (11 markets)
Top terms: canadaqatarmarketsbothteamsspread
- Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score42.5¢ YES · $40.2k 24h
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?76.5¢ YES · $485.9k 24h
- ★ Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?16.5¢ YES · $145.3k 24h
- Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?7.5¢ YES · $203.7k 24h
- Spread: Canada (-1.5)52.5¢ YES · $266.9k 24h
- Spread: Canada (-3.5)14.5¢ YES · $21.9k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.579.5¢ YES · $26.9k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.556.5¢ YES · $133.1k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.57.3¢ YES · $38.6k 24h
- Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score49.5¢ YES · $99.1k 24h
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score50.5¢ YES · $179.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.995 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.955 | 137 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.903 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.534 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.483 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.400 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.299 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.946 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-draw · fresh · feed 15s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →