TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “canada · qatar · markets” (12 markets)
Top terms: canadaqatarmarketsscorebothteams
- ★ Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score42.5¢ YES · $62.5k 24h
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?75.5¢ YES · $651.2k 24h
- Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?16.5¢ YES · $181.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar?1.3¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
- Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?8.5¢ YES · $304.6k 24h
- Spread: Canada (-1.5)51.5¢ YES · $404.5k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.579.5¢ YES · $33.8k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.556.5¢ YES · $140.5k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.533.5¢ YES · $22.4k 24h
- Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.57.3¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score49.5¢ YES · $119.8k 24h
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score50.5¢ YES · $207.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.038 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.807 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.550 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.802 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.403 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.754 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.160 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.149 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-btts · fresh · feed 11s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
65.19%
max drawdown
2.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.35%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1238
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-btts/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →