TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “counter · strike · iem” (21 markets)

Top terms: counterstrikeiemcolognemajorbo3

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs48.5¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs40.5¢ YES · $399.5k 24h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs33.5¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
★ Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs55.0¢ YES · $105.9k 24h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner0.5¢ YES · $51.0k 24h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs32.5¢ YES · $39.1k 24h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs0.1¢ YES · $16.5k 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs49.5¢ YES · $27.9k 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs63.5¢ YES · $113.7k 24h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B40.5¢ YES · $19.2k 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs0.1¢ YES · $142.2k 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner100.0¢ YES · $71.3k 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner0.1¢ YES · $56.9k 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs57.5¢ YES · $346.9k 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner52.5¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner59.5¢ YES · $18.8k 24h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?10.9¢ YES · $117.7k 24h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?28.5¢ YES · $180.1k 24h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?22.7¢ YES · $65.1k 24h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?55.5¢ YES · $22.3k 24h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?34.8¢ YES · $242.0k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (0 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Not enough history to test pairs (minimum 24 aligned points required).

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · cs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20 · fresh · feed 1s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

1227.54%

max drawdown

37.14%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

9.97%

RMS drawdown

pain index

5.35%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.47%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

33.08%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.97

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.97

upside/downside

roll spread

0.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

788

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-cs2-fokus-cs1-2026-06-20/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →