TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “open · us · pga” (8 markets)

Top terms: openuspgatourwinnerwin

★ Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open?0.1¢ YES · $129.6k 24h
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?0.2¢ YES · $212.8k 24h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?11.1¢ YES · $22.0k 24h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?4.7¢ YES · $37.2k 24h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?7.5¢ YES · $38.0k 24h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?34.3¢ YES · $70.1k 24h
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open?12.3¢ YES · $20.1k 24h
Will Marketa Vondrousova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?0.2¢ YES · $23.9k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Marketa Vondrousova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	-98.811	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-35.403	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will JT Poston win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-15.959	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-9.289	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-7.627	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-7.622	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open?	-7.482	116	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · 2026-us-open-winner-jordan-spieth-win · fresh · feed 7s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

0.00%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1023

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-2026-us-open-winner-jordan-spieth-win/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →