KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Anhelina Kalinina win the Sun vs Kalinina: Qualification Round 1 match?

YES · live

86.0¢

NO · live

11.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwtamatch-26jun13sunkal-kal · fresh · feed 35s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

996.22%

max drawdown

12.50%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

3.50%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.72%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

2.39%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

8.06%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.21

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.21

upside/downside

roll spread

41.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

199

store

spread

113.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwtamatch-26jun13sunkal-kal/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING35.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

86.0¢

NO · live

11.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

ARB GAP 2.50pp

Σ-sides total = 97.50% (2.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.523 / 1.00 bits (52%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

88.2%86.0¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp

11.8%11.5¢8.70×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 97.50% · arb gap 2.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

35.1s

·ticker

KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13SUNKAL-KAL

▲YES bid

88.00¢

▲YES ask

89.00¢

ΣΣ sides

97.50%

⚖arb gap

2.500pp

$24h vol $

$162.1k

◐open interest $

$84.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13SUNKAL-KAL
Event ticker: KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13SUNKAL
YES bid / ask: 88.00¢ / 89.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 11.00¢ / 12.00¢
Last YES: 86.00¢
Σ-sides: 97.50% (arb gap 2.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $162.13k
Volume total: $165.45k
Open interest: $84.37k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-27T09:30:00Z · 12.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Anhelina Kalinina wins the Sun vs Kalinina professional tennis match in the 2026 Berlin Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (199 bars · effective 350364 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 12.7 d · σ/bar 1.684pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 29.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1204 · n = 199✓ n = 199

μ per bar

+0.091pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.684pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

8.25pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move13d

29.42pp

σ × √305.4212697222222

Terminal variancebinary

0.1204

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

86.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.68pp · ES₉₅ 3.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.091pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.09⚠ low confidence · n < 200

VaR 95%

2.68pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

3.38pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

12.5pp

peak 72.0¢ → trough 63.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

86.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.163

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-614

risk $614 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.16 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$16.28

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.584 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.584 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.22 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

2.84 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:04:08 UTC
Snapshot age: 35.1s
SHA-256 attestation: 3dfb429761a1f97083fe462872b6e2b05b72b41ed28dc75a2273129033169565 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 199 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

1234.57%

σ per bar = 0.020857

Mean return (annualised)

41555.17%

μ per bar = 0.001186

Sharpe (rf=0)

33.66

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

12.50%

peak 0.72 → trough 0.63 over 1 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwtamatch-26jun13sunkal-kal/risk · same metrics, JSON