KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Diane Parry win the Parry vs Seidel: Qualification Round 1 match?

YES · live
93.0¢
NO · live
6.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwtamatch-26jun13parsei-par · fresh · feed 53s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
968.37%
max drawdown
19.12%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.75%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
1.95%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.32
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.32
upside/downside
roll spread
206.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
293
store
spread
212.8 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwtamatch-26jun13parsei-par/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING53.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
93.0¢
NO · live
6.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 93.9%NO 6.1%YES93.9%93.00¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 99.00% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 99.00% (1.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.330 / 1.00 bits (33%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
93.9%93.0¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
NO
6.1%6.0¢16.67×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 99.00% · arb gap 1.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
53.3s
·ticker
KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13PARSEI-PAR
▲YES bid
93.00¢
▲YES ask
95.00¢
ΣΣ sides
99.00%
⚖arb gap
1.000pp
$24h vol $
$179.0k
◐open interest $
$97.0k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13PARSEI-PAR
Event ticker
KXWTAMATCH-26JUN13PARSEI
YES bid / ask
93.00¢ / 95.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask
5.00¢ / 7.00¢
Last YES
93.00¢
Σ-sides
99.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$178.99k
Volume total
$191.89k
Open interest
$96.99k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-27T09:30:00Z · 12.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Diane Parry wins the Parry vs Seidel professional tennis match in the 2026 Berlin Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (293 bars · effective 350484 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 12.8 d · σ/bar 1.636pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 28.65ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0651 · n = 293✓ n = 293
μ per bar
+0.103pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.636pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
8.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move13d
28.65pp
σ × √306.6412536111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0651
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
93.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.59pp · ES₉₅ 3.27pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.103pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.09✓ n = 293
VaR 95%
2.59pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.27pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
19.1pp
peak 68.0¢ → trough 55.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
93.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.075
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1329
risk $1329 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7.53
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 93.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.366 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.366 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.10 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.84 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:50:38 UTC
Snapshot age
53.3s
SHA-256 attestation
095038a8beba46105dfb4be85de0d3e2087b93440852d260d6d3458e84c5b0bf · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 293 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K
Realized vol (annualised)
1319.90%
σ per bar = 0.022295
Mean return (annualised)
46747.01%
μ per bar = 0.001334
Sharpe (rf=0)
35.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.12%
peak 0.68 → trough 0.55 over 4 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwtamatch-26jun13parsei-par/risk · same metrics, JSON