KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

India vs Pakistan Winner?

YES · live

89.0¢

NO · live

9.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-ind · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

605.01%

max drawdown

13.98%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.09%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.38%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

1.58%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

11.77%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.99

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.99

upside/downside

roll spread

52.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

332

store

spread

331.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-ind/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

89.0¢

NO · live

9.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 98.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 98.50% (1.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.458 / 1.00 bits (46%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

90.4%89.0¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp

9.6%9.5¢10.53×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 98.50% · arb gap 1.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND-IND

▲YES bid

89.00¢

▲YES ask

92.00¢

ΣΣ sides

98.50%

⚖arb gap

1.500pp

$24h vol $

$505.6k

◐open interest $

$476.8k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND-IND
Event ticker: KXWT20MATCH-26JUN140930PAKIND
YES bid / ask: 89.00¢ / 92.00¢ (spread 3.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 8.00¢ / 11.00¢
Last YES: 89.00¢
Σ-sides: 98.50% (arb gap 1.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $505.61k
Volume total: $551.00k
Open interest: $476.84k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-16T17:30:00Z · 2.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If India wins the India vs Pakistan women's professional Women's T20 World Cup cricket match originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 at 9:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (332 bars · effective 350364 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 2.1 d · σ/bar 1.022pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 7.19ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0979 · n = 332✓ n = 332

μ per bar

-0.003pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.022pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

5.01pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move2d

7.19pp

σ × √49.4106825

Terminal variancebinary

0.0979

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

89.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.68pp · ES₉₅ 2.11pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 332

VaR 95%

1.68pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.11pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

14.0pp

peak 93.0¢ → trough 80.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

89.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.124

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-809

risk $809 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.12 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$12.36

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.500 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.500 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.17 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

3.18 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:04:08 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: 36273b8ee24e68e3db42b5ebc3675432e951b7c144a7584ad9f7b5c5157442b2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 332 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

691.18%

σ per bar = 0.011677

Mean return (annualised)

-1182.69%

μ per bar = -0.000034

Sharpe (rf=0)

-1.71

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

13.98%

peak 0.93 → trough 0.80 over 14 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwt20match-26jun140930pakind-ind/risk · same metrics, JSON