KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Germany wins by over 2.5 goals?

YES · live
74.0¢
NO · live
26.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcspread-26jun14gercuw-ger3 · fresh · feed 20s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
387.26%
max drawdown
4.11%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.35%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
1.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.06
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.06
upside/downside
roll spread
105.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
504
store
spread
136.1 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun14gercuw-ger3/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING20.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
74.0¢
NO · live
26.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 73.6%NO 26.4%YES73.6%74.00¢ · odds 1/1.35
Σ 100.50% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.832 / 1.00 bits (83%) · high uncertainty
YES
73.6%74.0¢1.35×▬ +0.00pp
NO
26.4%26.5¢3.77×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
20.5s
·ticker
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN14GERCUW-GER3
▲YES bid
73.00¢
▲YES ask
74.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$148.3k
◐open interest $
$183.1k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN14GERCUW-GER3
Event ticker
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN14GERCUW
YES bid / ask
73.00¢ / 74.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
26.00¢ / 27.00¢
Last YES
74.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$148.26k
Volume total
$171.03k
Open interest
$183.08k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-28T17:00:00Z · 14.0d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Germany vs Curacao professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (504 bars · effective 350484 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 14.0 d · σ/bar 0.654pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 12.01ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1924 · n = 504✓ n = 504
μ per bar
+0.010pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.654pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.21pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move14d
12.01pp
σ × √336.8994280555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.1924
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
74.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.07pp · ES₉₅ 1.34pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.010pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 504
VaR 95%
1.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.34pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.1pp
peak 73.0¢ → trough 70.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
74.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.351
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-285
risk $285 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$35.14
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 74.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.827 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.827 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.43 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.94 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:05:41 UTC
Snapshot age
20.5s
SHA-256 attestation
e75b407fb234e536a49bbcf1109d36ade611c69e4d82a417dda0515f81346e99 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 504 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K
Realized vol (annualised)
545.86%
σ per bar = 0.009220
Mean return (annualised)
4874.63%
μ per bar = 0.000139
Sharpe (rf=0)
8.93
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.11%
peak 0.73 → trough 0.70 over 8 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun14gercuw-ger3/risk · same metrics, JSON