KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will USA qualify for FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals?

YES · live

46.0¢

NO · live

53.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcround-26quar-usa · fresh · feed 2m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

145.99%

max drawdown

6.52%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.98%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.14%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.03%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

4.53%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.25

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.25

upside/downside

roll spread

2.5 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

183

store

spread

645.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.5m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

46.0¢

NO · live

53.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

46.2%46.0¢2.17×▬ +0.00pp

53.8%53.5¢1.87×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.5m

·ticker

KXWCROUND-26QUAR-USA

▲YES bid

45.00¢

▲YES ask

48.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$24.8k

◐open interest $

$196.7k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCROUND-26QUAR-USA
Event ticker: KXWCROUND-26QUAR
YES bid / ask: 45.00¢ / 48.00¢ (spread 3.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 52.00¢ / 55.00¢
Last YES: 46.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $24.78k
Volume total: $134.35k
Open interest: $196.68k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z · 44.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA is one of the teams to qualify for the Quarterfinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (209 bars · effective 348229 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 44.1 d · σ/bar 0.996pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 32.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2484 · n = 209✓ n = 209

μ per bar

+0.048pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.996pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

4.88pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move44d

32.42pp

σ × √1058.4903719444446

Terminal variancebinary

0.2484

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

46.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.59pp · ES₉₅ 2.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.048pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 209

VaR 95%

1.59pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.01pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

15.4pp

peak 39.0¢ → trough 33.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

46.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.174

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+117

$100 wins $117

FractionalUK

1.17 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$117.39

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.995 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.995 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.12 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.89 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:29:03 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.5m
SHA-256 attestation: 074234ed235aec86de89da340711e9fe3c7f7681d2d054e0f34bebca2a82a227 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 209 barsperiods/year ≈ 348.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

1539.68%

σ per bar = 0.026091

Mean return (annualised)

41037.92%

μ per bar = 0.001178

Sharpe (rf=0)

26.65

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

15.38%

peak 0.39 → trough 0.33 over 18 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON