KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will USA finish first in World Cup Group D?

YES · live
70.0¢
NO · live
29.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 11.11%
realized vol (ann.)
349.05%
max drawdown
10.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.56%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
7.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.08
upside/downside
roll spread
61.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
764
store
spread
141.8 bps
24h Δ
11.11%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +11.11%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.4m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
70.0¢
NO · live
29.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 70.4%NO 29.6%YES70.4%70.00¢ · odds 1/1.43
Σ 99.50% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.877 / 1.00 bits (88%) · high uncertainty
YES
70.4%70.0¢1.43×▬ +0.00pp
NO
29.6%29.5¢3.39×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4m
·ticker
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-USA
▲YES bid
70.00¢
▲YES ask
71.00¢
ΣΣ sides
99.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$115.1k
◐open interest $
$557.0k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D-USA
Event ticker
KXWCGROUPWIN-26D
YES bid / ask
70.00¢ / 71.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
29.00¢ / 30.00¢
Last YES
70.00¢
Σ-sides
99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$115.12k
Volume total
$486.14k
Open interest
$556.97k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-07-11T14:00:00Z · 26.9d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA finish first in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (764 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 26.9 d · σ/bar 0.590pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.99ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2100 · n = 764✓ n = 764
μ per bar
+0.009pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.590pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.89pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move27d
14.99pp
σ × √645.933765
Terminal variancebinary
0.2100
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
70.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.96pp · ES₉₅ 1.21pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.009pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 764
VaR 95%
0.96pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.21pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
10.5pp
peak 76.0¢ → trough 68.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
70.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.429
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-233
risk $233 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.43 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$42.86
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 70.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.881 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.881 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.74 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:02:35 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4m
SHA-256 attestation
d820546d3c1ea4ed37d911505824f96c6adf10d5fe639c04c7b1300ea71f6253 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 764 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K
Realized vol (annualised)
512.83%
σ per bar = 0.008660
Mean return (annualised)
4842.16%
μ per bar = 0.000138
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.53%
peak 0.76 → trough 0.68 over 42 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26d-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON