KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Turkiye vs USA Winner?

YES · live

43.0¢

NO · live

57.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa · fresh · feed 23s old

24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

235.3 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING22.8s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

43.0¢

NO · live

57.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.985 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

42.8%43.0¢2.33×▬ +0.00pp

57.2%57.5¢1.74×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

22.8s

·ticker

KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA

▲YES bid

42.00¢

▲YES ask

43.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$36.3k

◐open interest $

$154.9k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA-USA
Event ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURUSA
YES bid / ask: 42.00¢ / 43.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 57.00¢ / 58.00¢
Last YES: 43.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $36.27k
Volume total: $92.73k
Open interest: $154.89k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-10T02:00:00Z · 25.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA wins the Turkiye vs USA professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age: 22.8s
SHA-256 attestation: 1e723ece17f5fb0c8485c1654bd0e77594757960fc9cc97d335e64f2d10f50e8 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun25turusa-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON