KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

USA vs Australia Winner?

YES · live

62.0¢

NO · live

38.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgame-26jun19usaaus-usa · fresh · feed 36s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -8.82%

realized vol (ann.)

214.11%

max drawdown

10.29%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

5.76%

RMS drawdown

pain index

4.61%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.61%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

8.89%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.87

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.87

upside/downside

roll spread

62.2 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

766

store

spread

162.6 bps

24h Δ

-8.82%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -8.82%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun19usaaus-usa/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING36.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

62.0¢

NO · live

38.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.960 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

61.7%62.0¢1.61×▬ +0.00pp

38.3%38.5¢2.60×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

36.2s

·ticker

KXWCGAME-26JUN19USAAUS-USA

▲YES bid

61.00¢

▲YES ask

62.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$82.4k

◐open interest $

$246.2k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN19USAAUS-USA
Event ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN19USAAUS
YES bid / ask: 61.00¢ / 62.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 38.00¢ / 39.00¢
Last YES: 62.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $82.40k
Volume total: $168.58k
Open interest: $246.24k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-03T19:00:00Z · 19.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If USA wins the USA vs Australia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (766 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 19.1 d · σ/bar 0.362pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 7.75ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2356 · n = 766✓ n = 766

μ per bar

-0.008pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.362pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.77pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move19d

7.75pp

σ × √458.89505444444444

Terminal variancebinary

0.2356

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

62.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.60pp · ES₉₅ 0.75pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 766

VaR 95%

0.60pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.75pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

10.3pp

peak 68.0¢ → trough 61.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

62.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.613

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-163

risk $163 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.61 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$61.29

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.958 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.958 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.69 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

1.40 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:05:41 UTC
Snapshot age: 36.2s
SHA-256 attestation: 59c699a9ec229e74686474470fffb10d300212ffcb1b95d34eb6d811c46a3698 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 766 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K

Realized vol (annualised)

327.45%

σ per bar = 0.005530

Mean return (annualised)

-4234.19%

μ per bar = -0.000121

Sharpe (rf=0)

-12.93

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

10.29%

peak 0.68 → trough 0.61 over 602 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun19usaaus-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON