KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

France vs Senegal Winner?

YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgame-26jun16frasen-fra · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
168.06%
max drawdown
1.47%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.35%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.08%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.41%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
50.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
771
store
spread
148.1 bps
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun16frasen-fra/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
68.0¢
NO · live
32.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 67.7%NO 32.3%YES67.7%68.00¢ · odds 1/1.47
Σ 100.50% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.908 / 1.00 bits (91%) · high uncertainty
YES
67.7%68.0¢1.47×▬ +0.00pp
NO
32.3%32.5¢3.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.9s
·ticker
KXWCGAME-26JUN16FRASEN-FRA
▲YES bid
67.00¢
▲YES ask
68.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$144.5k
◐open interest $
$468.3k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXWCGAME-26JUN16FRASEN-FRA
Event ticker
KXWCGAME-26JUN16FRASEN
YES bid / ask
67.00¢ / 68.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
32.00¢ / 33.00¢
Last YES
68.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$144.50k
Volume total
$341.28k
Open interest
$468.30k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-30T19:00:00Z · 16.1d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If France wins the France vs Senegal professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (771 bars · effective 350492 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.1 d · σ/bar 0.284pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.58ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2176 · n = 771✓ n = 771
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.284pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.39pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
5.58pp
σ × √386.77717
Terminal variancebinary
0.2176
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
68.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.47pp · ES₉₅ 0.59pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 771
VaR 95%
0.47pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.59pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.5pp
peak 68.0¢ → trough 67.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
68.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.471
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-213
risk $213 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.47 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$47.06
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 68.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.904 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.904 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.64 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:13:07 UTC
Snapshot age
14.9s
SHA-256 attestation
4a37572bf765811fb2745a46ac33c206d8a584b3b15b68d8780fbebf3c4dafeb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 771 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.5K
Realized vol (annualised)
249.04%
σ per bar = 0.004207
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.47%
peak 0.68 → trough 0.67 over 10 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun16frasen-fra/risk · same metrics, JSON