KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

IR Iran vs New Zealand Winner?

YES · live

21.0¢

NO · live

79.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxwcgame-26jun15irinzl-nzl · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

487.8 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun15irinzl-nzl/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

21.0¢

NO · live

79.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.739 / 1.00 bits (74%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

20.9%21.0¢4.76×▬ +0.00pp

79.1%79.5¢1.26×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.3m

·ticker

KXWCGAME-26JUN15IRINZL-NZL

▲YES bid

20.00¢

▲YES ask

21.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$25.1k

◐open interest $

$183.5k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN15IRINZL-NZL
Event ticker: KXWCGAME-26JUN15IRINZL
YES bid / ask: 20.00¢ / 21.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 79.00¢ / 80.00¢
Last YES: 21.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $25.07k
Volume total: $41.54k
Open interest: $183.55k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-30T01:00:00Z · 15.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If New Zealand wins the IR Iran vs New Zealand professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 15, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.3m
SHA-256 attestation: 47376ff3905344fbdfa7b1f9c6008918003efbac9e4256c9861b0ab7c30bf33f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun15irinzl-nzl/risk · same metrics, JSON