KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

98.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxvoteprimary-mayorla26spra-63 · fresh · feed 59s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

6666.7 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxvoteprimary-mayorla26spra-63/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING59.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.0¢

NO · live

98.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp

99.0%98.5¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

59.2s

·ticker

KXVOTEPRIMARY-MAYORLA26SPRA-63

▲YES bid

1.00¢

▲YES ask

2.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$109.7

◐open interest $

$453.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-MAYORLA26SPRA-63
Event ticker: KXVOTEPRIMARY-MAYORLA26SPRA
YES bid / ask: 1.00¢ / 2.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 98.00¢ / 99.00¢
Last YES: 1.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $109.67
Volume total: $6.81k
Open interest: $453.42k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-06-02T14:00:00Z · 352.8d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Spencer Pratt in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:17:58 UTC
Snapshot age: 59.2s
SHA-256 attestation: b7da7ac542af30564c913aaa6501b1e4b1299c74eb18b46eaccb22884f986b1a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxvoteprimary-mayorla26spra-63/risk · same metrics, JSON