KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?

YES · live

5.2¢

NO · live

95.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxusairanagreement-27-26aug · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

36.16%

max drawdown

0.00%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.00%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.00%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.00%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

22.6 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

183

store

spread

1052.6 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.1m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.2¢

NO · live

95.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.45% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.45% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.294 / 1.00 bits (29%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.2%5.2¢19.23×▬ +0.00pp

94.8%95.2¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.45% · arb gap 0.45pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.1m

·ticker

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG

▲YES bid

4.50¢

▲YES ask

5.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.45%

⚖arb gap

0.450pp

$24h vol $

$7.5k

◐open interest $

$762.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Event ticker: KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
YES bid / ask: 4.50¢ / 5.00¢ (spread 0.50pp)
NO bid / ask: 95.00¢ / 95.50¢
Last YES: 5.20¢
Σ-sides: 100.45% (arb gap 0.45pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $7.51k
Volume total: $100.62k
Open interest: $762.12k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T14:00:00Z · 42.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (564 bars · effective 347294 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 42.1 d · σ/bar 1.221pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 38.80ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0493 · n = 564✓ n = 564

μ per bar

-0.021pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

1.221pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

5.98pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move42d

38.80pp

σ × √1010.4971669444444

Terminal variancebinary

0.0493

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.2¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 2.03pp · ES₉₅ 2.54pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.021pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.08✓ n = 564

VaR 95%

2.03pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

2.54pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

89.8pp

peak 41.0¢ → trough 4.2¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.2%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

19.231

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1823

$100 wins $1823

FractionalUK

18.23 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1823.08

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.295 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.295 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.27 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.08 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:29:03 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.1m
SHA-256 attestation: 3aba731f19838937afc2012119e61f3123d41f0a6c5bf7a2af3ff3655d10a247 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 564 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.3K

Realized vol (annualised)

3510.21%

σ per bar = 0.059564

Mean return (annualised)

-73070.91%

μ per bar = -0.002104

Sharpe (rf=0)

-20.82

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

89.76%

peak 0.41 → trough 0.04 over 329 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug/risk · same metrics, JSON