KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Ilia Topuria win the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight by KO/TKO/DQ?

YES · live

63.0¢

NO · live

37.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq · fresh · feed 48s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

160.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING48.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

63.0¢

NO · live

37.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.953 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

62.7%63.0¢1.59×▬ +0.00pp

37.3%37.5¢2.67×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

48.3s

·ticker

KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPKOTKODQ

▲YES bid

62.00¢

▲YES ask

63.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$97.9k

◐open interest $

$232.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE-TOPKOTKODQ
Event ticker: KXUFCMOV-26JUN14TOPGAE
YES bid / ask: 62.00¢ / 63.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 37.00¢ / 38.00¢
Last YES: 63.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $97.93k
Volume total: $153.28k
Open interest: $231.97k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-29T02:10:00Z · 14.3d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Ilia Topuria wins by KO/TKO/DQ during the Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje UFC Freedom 250 fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:17:58 UTC
Snapshot age: 48.3s
SHA-256 attestation: 755c185f28ca05f9bd7eee5c000bd3d007aeefd6b1e274f4332d3433852838b2 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcmov-26jun14topgae-topkotkodq/risk · same metrics, JSON