KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Justin Gaethje win the Topuria vs Gaethje professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026?

YES · live

22.0¢

NO · live

78.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcfight-26jun14topgae-gae · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.76%

realized vol (ann.)

217.49%

max drawdown

9.09%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

1.27%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.25%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.48%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.25%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.03

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.03

upside/downside

roll spread

232.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

765

store

spread

465.1 bps

24h Δ

4.76%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change +4.76%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun14topgae-gae/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

22.0¢

NO · live

78.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.758 / 1.00 bits (76%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

21.9%22.0¢4.55×▬ +0.00pp

78.1%78.5¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.2m

·ticker

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE-GAE

▲YES bid

21.00¢

▲YES ask

22.00¢

ΣΣ sides

100.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$440.6k

◐open interest $

$5.1M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE-GAE
Event ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14TOPGAE
YES bid / ask: 21.00¢ / 22.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 78.00¢ / 79.00¢
Last YES: 22.00¢
Σ-sides: 100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $440.63k
Volume total: $1.26M
Open interest: $5.12M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-29T02:10:00Z · 14.4d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Justin Gaethje wins the Topuria vs Gaethje professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (765 bars · effective 350617 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 14.4 d · σ/bar 0.367pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.84ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1716 · n = 765✓ n = 765

μ per bar

+0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.367pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.80pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move14d

6.84pp

σ × √346.07740583333333

Terminal variancebinary

0.1716

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

22.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.60pp · ES₉₅ 0.76pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 765

VaR 95%

0.60pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.76pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

9.1pp

peak 22.0¢ → trough 20.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

22.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

4.545

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+355

$100 wins $355

FractionalUK

3.55 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$354.55

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.760 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.760 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

2.18 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.36 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:04:08 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.2m
SHA-256 attestation: 9db06d08d4a345c039eba2506529d32e31fe5d64fa4c3ec0a966518e548a5ca7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 765 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.6K

Realized vol (annualised)

1039.05%

σ per bar = 0.017548

Mean return (annualised)

2134.91%

μ per bar = 0.000061

Sharpe (rf=0)

2.05

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

9.09%

peak 0.22 → trough 0.20 over 21 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun14topgae-gae/risk · same metrics, JSON