KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Steve Garcia win the Lopes vs Garcia professional MMA fight scheduled for Jun 14, 2026?

YES · live

42.0¢

NO · live

57.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxufcfight-26jun14lopgar-gar · fresh · feed 9s old

24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

235.3 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun14lopgar-gar/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

42.0¢

NO · live

57.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.982 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

42.2%42.0¢2.38×▬ +0.00pp

57.8%57.5¢1.74×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

9.1s

·ticker

KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14LOPGAR-GAR

▲YES bid

42.00¢

▲YES ask

43.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$54.7k

◐open interest $

$252.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14LOPGAR-GAR
Event ticker: KXUFCFIGHT-26JUN14LOPGAR
YES bid / ask: 42.00¢ / 43.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 57.00¢ / 58.00¢
Last YES: 42.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $54.74k
Volume total: $141.36k
Open interest: $252.00k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-06-29T00:00:00Z · 14.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Steve Garcia wins the Lopes vs Garcia professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age: 9.1s
SHA-256 attestation: 9ec64da980602ac2ddc59bff96f1656feb4416df71bc4ece4f96d1bb70a07a65 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun14lopgar-gar/risk · same metrics, JSON