KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

YES · live
6.0¢
NO · live
94.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxsb-27-bal · fresh · feed 17s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
182
store
spread
1818.2 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxsb-27-bal/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
6.0¢
NO · live
94.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 6.0%NO 94.0%NO94.0%94.50¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.50% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.326 / 1.00 bits (33%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
6.0%6.0¢16.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.0%94.5¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.2s
·ticker
KXSB-27-BAL
▲YES bid
5.00¢
▲YES ask
6.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$391.8
◐open interest $
$972.7k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXSB-27-BAL
Event ticker
KXSB-27
YES bid / ask
5.00¢ / 6.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
94.00¢ / 95.00¢
Last YES
6.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$391.77
Volume total
$62.43k
Open interest
$972.67k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2029-02-13T23:30:00Z · 969.5d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Baltimore wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (565 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 969.5 d · σ/bar 0.179pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 27.27ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0564 · n = 565✓ n = 565
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.179pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.88pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move970d
27.27pp
σ × √23268.03501111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0564
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
6.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.29pp · ES₉₅ 0.37pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 565
VaR 95%
0.29pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.37pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
16.7pp
peak 6.0¢ → trough 5.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
6.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
16.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1567
$100 wins $1567
FractionalUK
15.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 6.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.327 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.327 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.06 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:27:36 UTC
Snapshot age
17.2s
SHA-256 attestation
3e89f5e0bc06b987261db928bd11822f1420f7e7c6ea8492a43e543fbe94f5b0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 565 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K
Realized vol (annualised)
1921.06%
σ per bar = 0.032600
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
16.67%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.05 over 16 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxsb-27-bal/risk · same metrics, JSON