KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES · live
6.0¢
NO · live
94.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomr-28-tcar · fresh · feed 21s old
24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
10
insufficient
spread
521.7 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-tcar/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING21.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
6.0¢
NO · live
94.2¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 6.0%NO 94.0%NO94.0%94.25¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.25% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.25% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.327 / 1.00 bits (33%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
6.0%6.0¢16.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.0%94.2¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.25% · arb gap 0.25pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
21.2s
·ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
▲YES bid
5.60¢
▲YES ask
5.90¢
ΣΣ sides
100.25%
⚖arb gap
0.250pp
$24h vol $
$124.8
◐open interest $
$2.1M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Event ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28
YES bid / ask
5.60¢ / 5.90¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask
94.10¢ / 94.40¢
Last YES
6.00¢
Σ-sides
100.25% (arb gap 0.25pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$124.83
Volume total
$183.56k
Open interest
$2.06M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 876.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age
21.2s
SHA-256 attestation
21de3032d302a7dd7ddfb01ea042f7fa9adfd2be5e64768e106a1e19aad1dc98 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-tcar/risk · same metrics, JSON