KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES · live
32.0¢
NO · live
68.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomr-28-jdv · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
10
insufficient
spread
317.5 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-jdv/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
32.0¢
NO · live
68.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 31.8%NO 68.2%NO68.2%68.50¢ · odds 1/1.46
Σ 100.50% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (0.50pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.903 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
31.8%32.0¢3.13×▬ +0.00pp
NO
68.2%68.5¢1.46×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.0s
·ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
▲YES bid
31.00¢
▲YES ask
32.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$6.1k
◐open interest $
$1.4M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Event ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28
YES bid / ask
31.00¢ / 32.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
68.00¢ / 69.00¢
Last YES
32.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$6.15k
Volume total
$927.22k
Open interest
$1.43M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 876.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age
12.0s
SHA-256 attestation
a05169d7aad6f096d5b7838fa4c00d847059eafa6bec69ef2d4ed26cf60cd37f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-jdv/risk · same metrics, JSON