KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxpresnomd-28-hbid · fresh · feed 14s old
24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
10
insufficient
spread
1176.5 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-hbid/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING13.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.2¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.9%NO 99.1%NO99.1%99.15¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.05% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.074 / 1.00 bits (7%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.9%0.9¢111.11×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.1%99.2¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
13.7s
·ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-HBID
▲YES bid
0.80¢
▲YES ask
0.90¢
ΣΣ sides
100.05%
⚖arb gap
0.050pp
$24h vol $
$56.7
◐open interest $
$2.4M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-HBID
Event ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28
YES bid / ask
0.80¢ / 0.90¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask
99.10¢ / 99.20¢
Last YES
0.90¢
Σ-sides
100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$56.66
Volume total
$50.21k
Open interest
$2.36M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-11-07T15:00:00Z · 876.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age
13.7s
SHA-256 attestation
fcf7f855c4f22036693ef3c846f119491db1a402fc6bd8afe27d386f30452df9 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxpresnomd-28-hbid/risk · same metrics, JSON