KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

YES · live
74.0¢
NO · live
26.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxnextag-29-tbla · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
80.93%
max drawdown
1.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.68%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
216
store
spread
136.1 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxnextag-29-tbla/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
74.0¢
NO · live
26.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 73.6%NO 26.4%YES73.6%74.00¢ · odds 1/1.35
Σ 100.50% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.832 / 1.00 bits (83%) · high uncertainty
YES
73.6%74.0¢1.35×▬ +0.00pp
NO
26.4%26.5¢3.77×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3m
·ticker
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
▲YES bid
73.00¢
▲YES ask
74.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$8.2k
◐open interest $
$595.4k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA
Event ticker
KXNEXTAG-29
YES bid / ask
73.00¢ / 74.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
26.00¢ / 27.00¢
Last YES
74.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$8.24k
Volume total
$1.62M
Open interest
$595.42k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2029-01-20T15:00:00Z · 945.1d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the first new person to be Attorney General is Todd Blanche before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (600 bars · effective 347294 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 945.1 d · σ/bar 0.613pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 92.34ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1971 · n = 600✓ n = 600
μ per bar
+0.018pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.613pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move945d
92.34pp
σ × √22682.223728055556
Terminal variancebinary
0.1971
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
73.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.99pp · ES₉₅ 1.25pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.018pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 600
VaR 95%
0.99pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.25pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.3pp
peak 64.0¢ → trough 60.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
74.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.351
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-285
risk $285 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$35.14
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 74.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.827 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.827 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.43 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.94 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:45:15 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3m
SHA-256 attestation
8a14bc5c957dba77e1e636e994e0f084a1abed03b4cf1f2c16581b46782bb418 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 600 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.3K
Realized vol (annualised)
544.87%
σ per bar = 0.009246
Mean return (annualised)
9469.43%
μ per bar = 0.000273
Sharpe (rf=0)
17.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.25%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.60 over 43 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxnextag-29-tbla/risk · same metrics, JSON