KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Hantavirus Public Health Emergency of International Concern by 2026?

YES · live
3.8¢
NO · live
96.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxnewoutbreakhanta-26 · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
57.65%
max drawdown
27.50%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
27.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
2.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
216
store
spread
2686.6 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxnewoutbreakhanta-26/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.8¢
NO · live
96.6¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.8%NO 96.2%NO96.2%96.65¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.45% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.45% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.232 / 1.00 bits (23%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.8%3.8¢26.32×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.2%96.6¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.45% · arb gap 0.45pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.3s
·ticker
KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26
▲YES bid
2.90¢
▲YES ask
3.80¢
ΣΣ sides
100.45%
⚖arb gap
0.450pp
$24h vol $
$109.2
◐open interest $
$641.1k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26
Event ticker
KXNEWOUTBREAKHANTA-26
YES bid / ask
2.90¢ / 3.80¢ (spread 0.90pp)
NO bid / ask
96.20¢ / 97.10¢
Last YES
3.80¢
Σ-sides
100.45% (arb gap 0.45pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$109.21
Volume total
$55.74k
Open interest
$641.09k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-01-01T04:59:00Z · 194.7d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (599 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 194.7 d · σ/bar 0.098pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.69ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0366 · n = 599✓ n = 599
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.098pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.48pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move195d
6.69pp
σ × √4672.201564444445
Terminal variancebinary
0.0366
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.16pp · ES₉₅ 0.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 599
VaR 95%
0.16pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.20pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
31.3pp
peak 3.2¢ → trough 2.2¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
26.316
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2532
$100 wins $2532
FractionalUK
25.32 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2531.58
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.233 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.233 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.72 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:46:42 UTC
Snapshot age
12.3s
SHA-256 attestation
4bbe35b21d6ec2ea6de4978eae48ebb8b67db723fa3a534723c0f3ba7c220a16 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 599 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K
Realized vol (annualised)
1841.99%
σ per bar = 0.031258
Mean return (annualised)
9979.06%
μ per bar = 0.000287
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
31.25%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 333 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxnewoutbreakhanta-26/risk · same metrics, JSON