KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Who will be picked first in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?

YES · live
73.0¢
NO · live
27.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxnbadraft1-26-adyb · fresh · feed 23s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
259.89%
max drawdown
5.41%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.50%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
1.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
184
store
spread
137.9 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-adyb/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING23.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
73.0¢
NO · live
27.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 72.6%NO 27.4%YES72.6%73.00¢ · odds 1/1.37
Σ 100.50% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.847 / 1.00 bits (85%) · high uncertainty
YES
72.6%73.0¢1.37×▬ +0.00pp
NO
27.4%27.5¢3.64×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23.3s
·ticker
KXNBADRAFT1-26-ADYB
▲YES bid
72.00¢
▲YES ask
73.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$26.2k
◐open interest $
$546.0k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXNBADRAFT1-26-ADYB
Event ticker
KXNBADRAFT1-26
YES bid / ask
72.00¢ / 73.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
27.00¢ / 28.00¢
Last YES
73.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$26.23k
Volume total
$627.08k
Open interest
$545.96k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-07-07T14:00:00Z · 17.1d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If AJ Dybantsa is selected as the Pro Men's Basketball first overall pick in the Pro Men's Basketball draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (515 bars · effective 348683 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 17.1 d · σ/bar 1.088pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1971 · n = 515✓ n = 515
μ per bar
-0.021pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.088pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.33pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move17d
22.03pp
σ × √410.4835963888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.1971
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
73.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.81pp · ES₉₅ 2.26pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.021pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 515
VaR 95%
1.81pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.26pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
24.7pp
peak 93.0¢ → trough 70.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
73.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.370
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-270
risk $270 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.37 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$36.99
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 73.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.841 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.841 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.45 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.89 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:30:35 UTC
Snapshot age
23.3s
SHA-256 attestation
8977d2b7828e16b4b6bf4ed892fe4abc975fa0ffefcea4de1157fee702a7251c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 515 barsperiods/year ≈ 348.7K
Realized vol (annualised)
781.72%
σ per bar = 0.013238
Mean return (annualised)
-9521.46%
μ per bar = -0.000273
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
24.73%
peak 0.93 → trough 0.70 over 27 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxnbadraft1-26-adyb/risk · same metrics, JSON