KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live

3.3¢

NO · live

97.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-tor · fresh · feed 30s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

8.86%

max drawdown

5.71%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.67%

RMS drawdown

pain index

3.81%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

5.71%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

6.7 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

180

store

spread

1090.9 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-tor/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING30.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.3¢

NO · live

97.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.55% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.55% (0.55pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.208 / 1.00 bits (21%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.3%3.3¢30.30×▬ +0.00pp

96.7%97.2¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.55% · arb gap 0.55pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

30.3s

·ticker

KXMLB-26-TOR

▲YES bid

2.60¢

▲YES ask

2.90¢

ΣΣ sides

100.55%

⚖arb gap

0.550pp

$24h vol $

$539.3

◐open interest $

$500.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLB-26-TOR
Event ticker: KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask: 2.60¢ / 2.90¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 97.10¢ / 97.40¢
Last YES: 3.30¢
Σ-sides: 100.55% (arb gap 0.55pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $539.28
Volume total: $20.11k
Open interest: $500.05k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Toronto wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (406 bars · effective 348503 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 863.7 d · σ/bar 0.059pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.47ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0319 · n = 406✓ n = 406

μ per bar

+0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.059pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.29pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move864d

8.47pp

σ × √20728.581565277775

Terminal variancebinary

0.0319

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.3¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 406

VaR 95%

0.10pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.12pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

11.1pp

peak 2.7¢ → trough 2.4¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.3%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

30.303

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2930

$100 wins $2930

FractionalUK

29.30 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2930.30

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.209 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.209 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.92 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.05 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:24:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 30.3s
SHA-256 attestation: 5d2c232be0a91f3fe7d991f32123950201da26320a892a0d55db400e1b7ccfa1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 406 barsperiods/year ≈ 348.5K

Realized vol (annualised)

1204.31%

σ per bar = 0.020400

Mean return (annualised)

17267.71%

μ per bar = 0.000495

Sharpe (rf=0)

14.34

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

11.11%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 56 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-tor/risk · same metrics, JSON