KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live

2.8¢

NO · live

97.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-tb · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

22.15%

max drawdown

15.15%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

4.79%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.52%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

15.15%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

17.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

180

store

spread

2456.1 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-tb/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

2.8¢

NO · live

97.2¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.95% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.95% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.184 / 1.00 bits (18%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

2.8%2.8¢35.71×▬ +0.00pp

97.2%97.2¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.95% · arb gap 0.05pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.3m

·ticker

KXMLB-26-TB

▲YES bid

2.50¢

▲YES ask

3.20¢

ΣΣ sides

99.95%

⚖arb gap

0.050pp

$24h vol $

$213.6

◐open interest $

$510.6k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLB-26-TB
Event ticker: KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask: 2.50¢ / 3.20¢ (spread 0.70pp)
NO bid / ask: 96.80¢ / 97.50¢
Last YES: 2.80¢
Σ-sides: 99.95% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $213.63
Volume total: $23.83k
Open interest: $510.61k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Tampa Bay wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (511 bars · effective 347574 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 863.7 d · σ/bar 0.196pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 28.21ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0272 · n = 511✓ n = 511

μ per bar

-0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.196pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.96pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move864d

28.21pp

σ × √20728.567536388888

Terminal variancebinary

0.0272

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

2.8¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.32pp · ES₉₅ 0.41pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 511

VaR 95%

0.32pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.41pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

54.5pp

peak 4.4¢ → trough 2.0¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

2.8%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

35.714

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+3471

$100 wins $3471

FractionalUK

34.71 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$3471.43

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.184 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.184 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

5.16 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.04 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:24:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.3m
SHA-256 attestation: da506e6bddfb549724a76b90dd220508e1013e691cf4875015ad5487a83e0947 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 511 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.6K

Realized vol (annualised)

3605.01%

σ per bar = 0.061148

Mean return (annualised)

-24308.00%

μ per bar = -0.000699

Sharpe (rf=0)

-6.74

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

54.55%

peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 56 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-tb/risk · same metrics, JSON