KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will St. Louis win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live
1.7¢
NO · live
98.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-stl · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
180
store
spread
2857.1 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-stl/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.3m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.7¢
NO · live
98.6¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.7%NO 98.3%NO98.3%98.60¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.30% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.30% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.124 / 1.00 bits (12%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.7%1.7¢58.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.3%98.6¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.30% · arb gap 0.30pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3m
·ticker
KXMLB-26-STL
▲YES bid
1.20¢
▲YES ask
1.60¢
ΣΣ sides
100.30%
⚖arb gap
0.300pp
$24h vol $
$38.6
◐open interest $
$818.4k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXMLB-26-STL
Event ticker
KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask
1.20¢ / 1.60¢ (spread 0.40pp)
NO bid / ask
98.40¢ / 98.80¢
Last YES
1.70¢
Σ-sides
100.30% (arb gap 0.30pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$38.57
Volume total
$15.49k
Open interest
$818.36k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.7d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If St. Louis wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (563 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 863.7 d · σ/bar 0.159pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.84ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0167 · n = 563✓ n = 563
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.159pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.78pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move864d
22.84pp
σ × √20728.567665
Terminal variancebinary
0.0167
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.26pp · ES₉₅ 0.33pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 563
VaR 95%
0.26pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.33pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
72.4pp
peak 2.9¢ → trough 0.8¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
58.824
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5782
$100 wins $5782
FractionalUK
57.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5782.35
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.124 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.124 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:24:36 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3m
SHA-256 attestation
4f45ee1a6c196cde2804347b10de48824b9fa2559ae8958038188481efd3ef40 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 563 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K
Realized vol (annualised)
6213.20%
σ per bar = 0.105437
Mean return (annualised)
-32999.89%
μ per bar = -0.000950
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.31
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
72.41%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 59 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-stl/risk · same metrics, JSON