KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live

5.3¢

NO · live

94.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-phi · fresh · feed 6s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

48.19%

max drawdown

23.88%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

19.31%

RMS drawdown

pain index

17.88%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.09%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

23.88%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.13

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.13

upside/downside

roll spread

28.8 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

179

store

spread

384.6 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-phi/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

5.3¢

NO · live

94.8¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.10% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.10% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.299 / 1.00 bits (30%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

5.3%5.3¢18.87×▬ +0.00pp

94.7%94.8¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.10% · arb gap 0.10pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

6.1s

·ticker

KXMLB-26-PHI

▲YES bid

5.10¢

▲YES ask

5.30¢

ΣΣ sides

100.10%

⚖arb gap

0.100pp

$24h vol $

$293.6

◐open interest $

$781.9k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLB-26-PHI
Event ticker: KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask: 5.10¢ / 5.30¢ (spread 0.20pp)
NO bid / ask: 94.70¢ / 94.90¢
Last YES: 5.30¢
Σ-sides: 100.10% (arb gap 0.10pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $293.56
Volume total: $51.91k
Open interest: $781.91k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Philadelphia wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (562 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 863.7 d · σ/bar 0.167pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 24.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0502 · n = 562✓ n = 562

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.167pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.82pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move864d

24.07pp

σ × √20728.588281666664

Terminal variancebinary

0.0502

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

5.3¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.28pp · ES₉₅ 0.35pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 562

VaR 95%

0.28pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.35pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

32.0pp

peak 7.5¢ → trough 5.1¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

5.3%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

18.868

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+1787

$100 wins $1787

FractionalUK

17.87 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$1786.79

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.299 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.299 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.24 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.08 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 11:24:36 UTC
Snapshot age: 6.1s
SHA-256 attestation: c649bcf13660c9ce693d31a98940be01cad51afa80a6b903afd6402bb23a1afb · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 562 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

1676.58%

σ per bar = 0.028451

Mean return (annualised)

-7678.63%

μ per bar = -0.000221

Sharpe (rf=0)

-4.58

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

32.00%

peak 0.07 → trough 0.05 over 116 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-phi/risk · same metrics, JSON