KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live

30.4¢

NO · live

70.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-lad · fresh · feed 3s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

186.37%

max drawdown

6.58%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

2.70%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.52%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.39%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

5.62%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

117.7 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

208

store

spread

645.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-lad/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.4s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

30.4¢

NO · live

70.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.95% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 100.95% (0.95pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.883 / 1.00 bits (88%) · high uncertainty

YES

30.1%30.4¢3.29×▬ +0.00pp

69.9%70.5¢1.42×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.95% · arb gap 0.95pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

3.4s

·ticker

KXMLB-26-LAD

▲YES bid

28.50¢

▲YES ask

30.40¢

ΣΣ sides

100.95%

⚖arb gap

0.950pp

$24h vol $

$2.4k

◐open interest $

$1.0M

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXMLB-26-LAD
Event ticker: KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask: 28.50¢ / 30.40¢ (spread 1.90pp)
NO bid / ask: 69.60¢ / 71.50¢
Last YES: 30.40¢
Σ-sides: 100.95% (arb gap 0.95pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $2.39k
Volume total: $538.67k
Open interest: $1.03M
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 863.6d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Los Angeles D wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (591 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 863.6 d · σ/bar 0.564pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 81.13ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2116 · n = 591✓ n = 591

μ per bar

+0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.564pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

2.76pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move864d

81.13pp

σ × √20727.473290555557

Terminal variancebinary

0.2116

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

30.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.93pp · ES₉₅ 1.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 591

VaR 95%

0.93pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.16pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

8.8pp

peak 30.6¢ → trough 27.9¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

30.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

3.289

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+229

$100 wins $229

FractionalUK

2.29 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$228.95

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.886 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.886 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.72 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.52 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 12:31:32 UTC
Snapshot age: 3.4s
SHA-256 attestation: 4f1fa715100c1a6538496c3f8ffa3d0e7c3dae1edc2d7c9935454d09e63c4b21 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 591 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

1134.82%

σ per bar = 0.019258

Mean return (annualised)

779.56%

μ per bar = 0.000022

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.69

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

8.82%

peak 0.31 → trough 0.28 over 41 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-lad/risk · same metrics, JSON