KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Detroit win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmlb-26-det · fresh · feed 20s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -15.38%
realized vol (ann.)
12.95%
max drawdown
23.08%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
16.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
15.86%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
23.08%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.33
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
211
store
spread
1818.2 bps
24h Δ
-15.38%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -15.38%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmlb-26-det/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING20.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.1%NO 98.9%NO98.9%98.90¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.087 / 1.00 bits (9%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.1%1.1¢90.91×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.9%98.9¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
20.4s
·ticker
KXMLB-26-DET
▲YES bid
1.00¢
▲YES ask
1.20¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.6
◐open interest $
$680.5k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXMLB-26-DET
Event ticker
KXMLB-26
YES bid / ask
1.00¢ / 1.20¢ (spread 0.20pp)
NO bid / ask
98.80¢ / 99.00¢
Last YES
1.10¢
Σ-sides
100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$31.65
Volume total
$9.13k
Open interest
$680.47k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-10-31T04:00:00Z · 865.6d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Detroit wins the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1661 bars · effective 349634 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 865.6 d · σ/bar 0.039pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.58ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0109 · n = 1661✓ n = 1661
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.039pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.19pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move866d
5.58pp
σ × √20773.972731111113
Terminal variancebinary
0.0109
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1661
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.08pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
41.2pp
peak 1.7¢ → trough 1.0¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
90.909
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+8991
$100 wins $8991
FractionalUK
89.91 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$8990.91
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.087 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.087 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 14:01:17 UTC
Snapshot age
20.4s
SHA-256 attestation
7cb52a929e0a649401053ae1bbbf2065751220c32f922f13491d86d5be7c17b1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,661 barsperiods/year ≈ 349.6K
Realized vol (annualised)
1783.44%
σ per bar = 0.030161
Mean return (annualised)
-1832.66%
μ per bar = -0.000052
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
41.18%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 10 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmlb-26-det/risk · same metrics, JSON