KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?

YES · live
17.0¢
NO · live
83.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxmenworldcup-26-fr · fresh · feed 36s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.16%
realized vol (ann.)
153.33%
max drawdown
8.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.75%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.40%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.58%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
198.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
766
store
spread
238.1 bps
24h Δ
-1.16%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -1.16%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-fr/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING35.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
17.0¢
NO · live
83.2¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 17.0%NO 83.0%NO83.0%83.20¢ · odds 1/1.20
Σ 100.20% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.20% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.657 / 1.00 bits (66%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
17.0%17.0¢5.88×▬ +0.00pp
NO
83.0%83.2¢1.20×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.20% · arb gap 0.20pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
35.9s
·ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR
▲YES bid
16.60¢
▲YES ask
17.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.20%
⚖arb gap
0.200pp
$24h vol $
$118.7k
◐open interest $
$9.8M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR
Event ticker
KXMENWORLDCUP-26
YES bid / ask
16.60¢ / 17.00¢ (spread 0.40pp)
NO bid / ask
83.00¢ / 83.40¢
Last YES
17.00¢
Σ-sides
100.20% (arb gap 0.20pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$118.73k
Volume total
$2.08M
Open interest
$9.82M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-07-18T14:00:00Z · 764.9d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (766 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 764.9 d · σ/bar 0.259pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 35.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1411 · n = 766✓ n = 766
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.259pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.27pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move765d
35.10pp
σ × √18357.895144166665
Terminal variancebinary
0.1411
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
17.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.43pp · ES₉₅ 0.53pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 766
VaR 95%
0.43pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.53pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
8.7pp
peak 17.3¢ → trough 15.8¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
17.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
5.882
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+488
$100 wins $488
FractionalUK
4.88 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$488.24
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 17.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.658 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.658 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.27 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:05:41 UTC
Snapshot age
35.9s
SHA-256 attestation
f42f64852e9b42f111a1c4a1c35fa556cd3bfa60560adfe636ef4147599979d4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 766 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K
Realized vol (annualised)
924.71%
σ per bar = 0.015616
Mean return (annualised)
-536.12%
μ per bar = -0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.67%
peak 0.17 → trough 0.16 over 146 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxmenworldcup-26-fr/risk · same metrics, JSON