KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before July 2026?

YES · live

1.6¢

NO · live

98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxleavewalz-27jan01-twal-26jul01 · fresh · feed 18s old

24h sparkline · 11 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

2400.0 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxleavewalz-27jan01-twal-26jul01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING18.3s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

1.6¢

NO · live

98.8¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.35% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.35% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.118 / 1.00 bits (12%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

1.6%1.6¢62.50×▬ +0.00pp

98.4%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.35% · arb gap 0.35pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

18.3s

·ticker

KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01-TWAL-26JUL01

▲YES bid

1.10¢

▲YES ask

1.40¢

ΣΣ sides

100.35%

⚖arb gap

0.350pp

$24h vol $

$240.4

◐open interest $

$533.4k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01-TWAL-26JUL01
Event ticker: KXLEAVEWALZ-27JAN01
YES bid / ask: 1.10¢ / 1.40¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask: 98.60¢ / 98.90¢
Last YES: 1.60¢
Σ-sides: 100.35% (arb gap 0.35pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $240.40
Volume total: $30.15k
Open interest: $533.37k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-07-02T13:59:00Z · 17.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 20:28:23 UTC
Snapshot age: 18.3s
SHA-256 attestation: 798684a49f5b418fe04a7f9ce656671fef0a1c0a85a72fca5add269d5bb2ac77 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxleavewalz-27jan01-twal-26jul01/risk · same metrics, JSON