KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ECONOMICS

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

YES · live
89.5¢
NO · live
10.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxlayoffsyinfo-26-494000 · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 16 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
16
insufficient
spread
78.3 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxlayoffsyinfo-26-494000/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
89.5¢
NO · live
10.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 89.5%NO 10.5%YES89.5%89.50¢ · odds 1/1.12
Σ 100.05% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.486 / 1.00 bits (49%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
89.5%89.5¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp
NO
10.5%10.5¢9.48×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2m
·ticker
KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26-494000
▲YES bid
89.10¢
▲YES ask
89.80¢
ΣΣ sides
100.05%
⚖arb gap
0.050pp
$24h vol $
$1.1k
◐open interest $
$160.6k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26-494000
Event ticker
KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26
YES bid / ask
89.10¢ / 89.80¢ (spread 0.70pp)
NO bid / ask
10.20¢ / 10.90¢
Last YES
89.50¢
Σ-sides
100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$1.05k
Volume total
$28.11M
Open interest
$160.62k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-03-01T15:00:00Z · 259.8d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:35:55 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2m
SHA-256 attestation
f3fce701893856554e0e058383611c7f53d6d5a0776c35d777d552173c036f7e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxlayoffsyinfo-26-494000/risk · same metrics, JSON