KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

YES · live

4.0¢

NO · live

95.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kximpeach-27-jan01 · fresh · feed 1m old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

45.68%

max drawdown

16.67%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

16.28%

RMS drawdown

pain index

15.90%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.04%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

16.67%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.00

upside/downside

roll spread

37.2 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

109

store

spread

1609.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kximpeach-27-jan01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.1m⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

4.0¢

NO · live

95.6¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.65% · fair

Σ-sides total = 99.65% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.243 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

4.0%4.0¢25.00×▬ +0.00pp

96.0%95.6¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.65% · arb gap 0.35pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

1.1m

·ticker

KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01

▲YES bid

4.00¢

▲YES ask

4.70¢

ΣΣ sides

99.65%

⚖arb gap

0.350pp

$24h vol $

$77.0

◐open interest $

$435.1k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXIMPEACH-27-JAN01
Event ticker: KXIMPEACH
YES bid / ask: 4.00¢ / 4.70¢ (spread 0.70pp)
NO bid / ask: 95.30¢ / 96.00¢
Last YES: 4.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.65% (arb gap 0.35pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $76.99
Volume total: $48.65k
Open interest: $435.11k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-01-01T15:00:00Z · 195.2d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (254 bars · effective 338383 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 195.2 d · σ/bar 0.265pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 18.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0384 · n = 254✓ n = 254

μ per bar

-0.004pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.265pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.30pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move195d

18.17pp

σ × √4685.345943888889

Terminal variancebinary

0.0384

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

4.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.44pp · ES₉₅ 0.55pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 254

VaR 95%

0.44pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.55pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

40.0pp

peak 5.5¢ → trough 3.3¢

Median step

0.20pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

4.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

25.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2400

$100 wins $2400

FractionalUK

24.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2400.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.242 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.242 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.64 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.06 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 09:38:06 UTC
Snapshot age: 1.1m
SHA-256 attestation: c09128ff08a5a0a4a4529d615a5ef873a8b233883328343da6679cb7fb61476b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 254 barsperiods/year ≈ 338.4K

Realized vol (annualised)

3391.30%

σ per bar = 0.058299

Mean return (annualised)

-29845.05%

μ per bar = -0.000882

Sharpe (rf=0)

-8.80

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

40.00%

peak 0.06 → trough 0.03 over 54 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kximpeach-27-jan01/risk · same metrics, JSON