KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?

YES · live

45.0¢

NO · live

56.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801 · fresh · feed 20s old

24h sparkline · 10 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

454.5 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING20.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

45.0¢

NO · live

56.0¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 101.00% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.991 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

44.6%45.0¢2.22×▬ +0.00pp

55.4%56.0¢1.79×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

20.2s

·ticker

KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801

▲YES bid

43.00¢

▲YES ask

45.00¢

ΣΣ sides

101.00%

⚖arb gap

1.000pp

$24h vol $

$35.1k

◐open interest $

$929.6k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Event ticker: KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17
YES bid / ask: 43.00¢ / 45.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 55.00¢ / 57.00¢
Last YES: 45.00¢
Σ-sides: 101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $35.09k
Volume total: $929.18k
Open interest: $929.58k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2026-08-01T13:59:00Z · 47.7d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 20:26:54 UTC
Snapshot age: 20.2s
SHA-256 attestation: 53b36d70be750b484df7fb8351912aa159e8517e05c40313b37682df8c2c9a9c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801/risk · same metrics, JSON