KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?

YES · live
21.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxgreenterritory-29 · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
180
store
spread
909.1 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxgreenterritory-29/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
21.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 21.2%NO 78.8%NO78.8%78.00¢ · odds 1/1.28
Σ 99.00% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 99.00% (1.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.746 / 1.00 bits (75%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
21.2%21.0¢4.76×▬ +0.00pp
NO
78.8%78.0¢1.28×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 99.00% · arb gap 1.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.1s
·ticker
KXGREENTERRITORY-29
▲YES bid
21.00¢
▲YES ask
23.00¢
ΣΣ sides
99.00%
⚖arb gap
1.000pp
$24h vol $
$1.1k
◐open interest $
$438.3k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXGREENTERRITORY-29
Event ticker
KXGREENTERRITORY-29
YES bid / ask
21.00¢ / 23.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask
77.00¢ / 79.00¢
Last YES
21.00¢
Σ-sides
99.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$1.07k
Volume total
$573.31k
Open interest
$438.32k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2029-01-21T15:00:00Z · 946.1d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (564 bars · effective 347294 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 946.1 d · σ/bar 0.587pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 88.48ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1659 · n = 564✓ n = 564
μ per bar
-0.021pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.587pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.88pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move946d
88.48pp
σ × √22707.563247222224
Terminal variancebinary
0.1659
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
21.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.99pp · ES₉₅ 1.23pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.021pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 564
VaR 95%
0.99pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.23pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
42.4pp
peak 33.0¢ → trough 19.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
21.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.762
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+376
$100 wins $376
FractionalUK
3.76 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$376.19
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 21.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.741 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.741 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.25 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.34 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:26:06 UTC
Snapshot age
6.1s
SHA-256 attestation
2d201e02519cdd1e4d54cc0706d350f445be9c993968d2be1793225ae48198b5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 564 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.3K
Realized vol (annualised)
1313.21%
σ per bar = 0.022284
Mean return (annualised)
-27881.33%
μ per bar = -0.000803
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
42.42%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.19 over 108 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxgreenterritory-29/risk · same metrics, JSON