KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Who will win the governorship in California?

YES · live
90.3¢
NO · live
9.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxgovca-26-xbec · fresh · feed 36s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.41%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
182
store
spread
11.1 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxgovca-26-xbec/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING35.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
90.3¢
NO · live
9.8¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 90.3%NO 9.7%YES90.3%90.30¢ · odds 1/1.11
Σ 100.05% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.05% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.461 / 1.00 bits (46%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
90.3%90.3¢1.11×▬ +0.00pp
NO
9.7%9.8¢10.26×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.05% · arb gap 0.05pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
35.7s
·ticker
KXGOVCA-26-XBEC
▲YES bid
90.20¢
▲YES ask
90.30¢
ΣΣ sides
100.05%
⚖arb gap
0.050pp
$24h vol $
$9.4k
◐open interest $
$1.3M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXGOVCA-26-XBEC
Event ticker
KXGOVCA-26
YES bid / ask
90.20¢ / 90.30¢ (spread 0.10pp)
NO bid / ask
9.70¢ / 9.80¢
Last YES
90.30¢
Σ-sides
100.05% (arb gap 0.05pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$9.36k
Volume total
$3.58M
Open interest
$1.31M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-11-03T15:00:00Z · 501.1d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (565 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 501.1 d · σ/bar 0.173pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 18.94ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0876 · n = 565✓ n = 565
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.173pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.85pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move501d
18.94pp
σ × √12027.529869444445
Terminal variancebinary
0.0876
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
90.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.28pp · ES₉₅ 0.36pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 565
VaR 95%
0.28pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.36pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.0pp
peak 90.8¢ → trough 89.0¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
90.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.107
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-931
risk $931 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.11 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$10.74
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 90.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.459 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.459 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.15 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.37 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:27:36 UTC
Snapshot age
35.7s
SHA-256 attestation
abd8442dcfec6536949f82e8e9f34f549cfc6e3faf3a6a5ffc59796261c7ecab · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 565 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K
Realized vol (annualised)
113.47%
σ per bar = 0.001926
Mean return (annualised)
204.89%
μ per bar = 0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.81
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.98%
peak 0.91 → trough 0.89 over 14 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxgovca-26-xbec/risk · same metrics, JSON