KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will George Russell finish in first in the main race at the 2026 Barcelona Grand Prix?

YES · live
1.0¢
NO · live
99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxf1race-bargp26-rus · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -97.96%
realized vol (ann.)
1070.42%
max drawdown
98.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
33.91%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
3.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
98.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.83
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
738
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-97.96%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -97.96%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxf1race-bargp26-rus/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.2m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.0¢
NO · live
99.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.0%NO 99.0%NO99.0%99.00¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2m
·ticker
KXF1RACE-BARGP26-RUS
▲YES bid
0.00¢
▲YES ask
1.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$4.7k
◐open interest $
$333.8k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXF1RACE-BARGP26-RUS
Event ticker
KXF1RACE-BARGP26
YES bid / ask
0.00¢ / 1.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
99.00¢ / 100.00¢
Last YES
1.00¢
Σ-sides
100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$4.71k
Volume total
$5.46k
Open interest
$333.81k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-28T15:00:00Z · 14.0d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If George Russell finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for June 14, 2026 at the 2026 Barcelona Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (738 bars · effective 350617 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 14.0 d · σ/bar 1.808pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 33.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 738✓ n = 738
μ per bar
-0.065pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.808pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
8.86pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move14d
33.09pp
σ × √334.91100361111114
Terminal variancebinary
0.0099
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 3.04pp · ES₉₅ 3.79pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.065pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.06✓ n = 738
VaR 95%
3.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.79pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
98.8pp
peak 84.0¢ → trough 1.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
100.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+9900
$100 wins $9900
FractionalUK
99.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$9900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.081 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.081 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:04:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2m
SHA-256 attestation
5b09f72a9001d7a2056e1023946c111b5e0a55c7a531c75ddf6be85be41a99c4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 738 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.6K
Realized vol (annualised)
4903.63%
σ per bar = 0.082814
Mean return (annualised)
-185147.48%
μ per bar = -0.005281
Sharpe (rf=0)
-37.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
98.81%
peak 0.84 → trough 0.01 over 47 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxf1race-bargp26-rus/risk · same metrics, JSON