KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Sussex vs Glamorgan Winner?

YES · live
94.0¢
NO · live
7.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxcountychampmatch-26jun120600glasus-sus · fresh · feed 54s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.17%
realized vol (ann.)
1418.25%
max drawdown
17.02%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
3.88%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
328.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
649
store
spread
215.1 bps
24h Δ
2.17%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +2.17%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxcountychampmatch-26jun120600glasus-sus/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING54.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
94.0¢
NO · live
7.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 93.1%NO 6.9%YES93.1%94.00¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 101.00% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 101.00% (1.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.363 / 1.00 bits (36%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
93.1%94.0¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
NO
6.9%7.0¢14.29×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 101.00% · arb gap 1.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
54.1s
·ticker
KXCOUNTYCHAMPMATCH-26JUN120600GLASUS-SUS
▲YES bid
92.00¢
▲YES ask
94.00¢
ΣΣ sides
101.00%
⚖arb gap
1.000pp
$24h vol $
$72.5k
◐open interest $
$36.6k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXCOUNTYCHAMPMATCH-26JUN120600GLASUS-SUS
Event ticker
KXCOUNTYCHAMPMATCH-26JUN120600GLASUS
YES bid / ask
92.00¢ / 94.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask
6.00¢ / 8.00¢
Last YES
94.00¢
Σ-sides
101.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$72.48k
Volume total
$137.95k
Open interest
$36.58k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-06-18T10:00:00Z · 3.7d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Sussex wins the Sussex vs Glamorgan men's professional County Championship cricket match originally scheduled for Jun 12, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (649 bars · effective 350426 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 3.7 d · σ/bar 2.397pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.72ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0564 · n = 649✓ n = 649
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.397pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
11.74pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move4d
22.72pp
σ × √89.86632138888888
Terminal variancebinary
0.0564
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
94.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 3.94pp · ES₉₅ 4.94pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 649
VaR 95%
3.94pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
4.94pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
17.0pp
peak 94.0¢ → trough 78.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
94.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.064
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1567
risk $1567 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.06 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6.38
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 94.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.327 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.327 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.09 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
4.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:07 UTC
Snapshot age
54.1s
SHA-256 attestation
16a53cf5f22319cc4df6834b0e8583abbd9a330b65fd291a8598434e3b3caefc · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 649 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.4K
Realized vol (annualised)
1575.42%
σ per bar = 0.026613
Mean return (annualised)
1163.01%
μ per bar = 0.000033
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.74
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.02%
peak 0.94 → trough 0.78 over 57 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxcountychampmatch-26jun120600glasus-sus/risk · same metrics, JSON