KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

YES · live
27.0¢
NO · live
72.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxcitrini-28jul01 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
120
store
spread
714.3 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
27.0¢
NO · live
72.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 27.3%NO 72.7%NO72.7%72.00¢ · odds 1/1.39
Σ 99.00% · moderate
Σ-sides total = 99.00% (1.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.845 / 1.00 bits (85%) · high uncertainty
YES
27.3%27.0¢3.70×▬ +0.00pp
NO
72.7%72.0¢1.39×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 99.00% · arb gap 1.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.2s
·ticker
KXCITRINI-28JUL01
▲YES bid
27.00¢
▲YES ask
29.00¢
ΣΣ sides
99.00%
⚖arb gap
1.000pp
$24h vol $
$243.4
◐open interest $
$190.1k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXCITRINI-28JUL01
Event ticker
KXCITRINI-28JUL01
YES bid / ask
27.00¢ / 29.00¢ (spread 2.00pp)
NO bid / ask
71.00¢ / 73.00¢
Last YES
27.00¢
Σ-sides
99.00% (arb gap 1.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$243.37
Volume total
$6.97M
Open interest
$190.14k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2028-07-01T14:00:00Z · 742.2d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (503 bars · effective 344658 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 742.2 d · σ/bar 0.389pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 51.98ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1971 · n = 503✓ n = 503
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.389pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.91pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move742d
51.98pp
σ × √17812.06317
Terminal variancebinary
0.1971
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
27.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.64pp · ES₉₅ 0.81pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 503
VaR 95%
0.64pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.81pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
15.6pp
peak 32.0¢ → trough 27.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
27.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.704
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+270
$100 wins $270
FractionalUK
2.70 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$270.37
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 27.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.841 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.841 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.89 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.45 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:56:05 UTC
Snapshot age
7.2s
SHA-256 attestation
a950486afac2187a662d39bda00140bedab0a6ec25f799e7945050cf72934c25 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 503 barsperiods/year ≈ 344.7K
Realized vol (annualised)
763.81%
σ per bar = 0.013010
Mean return (annualised)
-4906.16%
μ per bar = -0.000142
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.62%
peak 0.32 → trough 0.27 over 309 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01/risk · same metrics, JSON