KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · ELECTIONS

Will Steve Hilton finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxcagovprimary1st-26jun02-1st-shil · fresh · feed 53s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -53.33%
realized vol (ann.)
79.85%
max drawdown
77.78%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
45.48%
RMS drawdown
pain index
38.33%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.21%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
73.24%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
1063.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
767
store
spread
5454.5 bps
24h Δ
-53.33%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -53.33%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxcagovprimary1st-26jun02-1st-shil/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING52.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.4¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%NO99.3%99.45¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.15% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.15% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.060 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢142.86×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.3%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.15% · arb gap 0.15pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
52.9s
·ticker
KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26JUN02-1ST-SHIL
▲YES bid
0.40¢
▲YES ask
0.70¢
ΣΣ sides
100.15%
⚖arb gap
0.150pp
$24h vol $
$4.9k
◐open interest $
$2.3M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26JUN02-1ST-SHIL
Event ticker
KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26JUN02-1ST
YES bid / ask
0.40¢ / 0.70¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask
99.30¢ / 99.60¢
Last YES
0.70¢
Σ-sides
100.15% (arb gap 0.15pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$4.91k
Volume total
$29.85k
Open interest
$2.31M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-06-02T14:00:00Z · 352.9d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Steve Hilton finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (767 bars · effective 350617 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 352.9 d · σ/bar 0.135pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 12.41ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0070 · n = 767✓ n = 767
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.135pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.66pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move353d
12.41pp
σ × √8469.866644722222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0070
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.22pp · ES₉₅ 0.28pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 767
VaR 95%
0.22pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.28pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
77.8pp
peak 1.8¢ → trough 0.4¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
142.857
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+14186
$100 wins $14186
FractionalUK
141.86 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$14185.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.060 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.060 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:07 UTC
Snapshot age
52.9s
SHA-256 attestation
4782a7b4b86dc9aac0f62e1af1fabcefcd3aecca3ea9b226d0c89762a1b03a31 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 767 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.6K
Realized vol (annualised)
6463.01%
σ per bar = 0.109149
Mean return (annualised)
-34884.98%
μ per bar = -0.000995
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
77.78%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.00 over 305 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxcagovprimary1st-26jun02-1st-shil/risk · same metrics, JSON