KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · CRYPTO

Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?

YES · live
5.0¢
NO · live
95.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxbtc2026200-27jan01-200000 · fresh · feed 1m old
24h sparkline · 16 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
16
insufficient
spread
2222.2 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxbtc2026200-27jan01-200000/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING1.0m⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.0¢
NO · live
95.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.0%NO 95.0%NO95.0%95.50¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.50% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.50% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.285 / 1.00 bits (29%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.0%5.0¢20.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.0%95.5¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.50% · arb gap 0.50pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0m
·ticker
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
▲YES bid
4.00¢
▲YES ask
5.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.50%
⚖arb gap
0.500pp
$24h vol $
$456.8
◐open interest $
$1.9M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
Event ticker
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01
YES bid / ask
4.00¢ / 5.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
95.00¢ / 96.00¢
Last YES
5.00¢
Σ-sides
100.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$456.80
Volume total
$255.75k
Open interest
$1.93M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-01-01T05:00:00Z · 200.3d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:35:55 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0m
SHA-256 attestation
5a0f9291d8c22f36dcee03cbbc10c19ef9ffce65ef0fe71aa31017b3fb09a93e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 0 bars

insufficient samples — need ≥ 2 finite positive bars to compute returns. Source is fallback; sovereign store has not accumulated enough history yet.

/api/asset/kalshi-kxbtc2026200-27jan01-200000/risk · same metrics, JSON