KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · POLITICS

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

YES · live

39.0¢

NO · live

60.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxbalancepowercombo-27feb-dd · fresh · feed 13s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

70.03%

max drawdown

2.50%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

2.36%

RMS drawdown

pain index

2.23%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.11%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

2.50%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.50

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.50

upside/downside

roll spread

2.4 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

216

store

spread

253.2 bps

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxbalancepowercombo-27feb-dd/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →

LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.5s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

39.0¢

NO · live

60.5¢

YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)

no history

YES / NO split · live

Σ 99.50% · moderate

Σ-sides total = 99.50% (0.50pp arb gap)

H(p) entropy = 0.966 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)

YES

39.2%39.0¢2.56×▬ +0.00pp

60.8%60.5¢1.65×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 99.50% · arb gap 0.50pp

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

12.5s

·ticker

KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD

▲YES bid

39.00¢

▲YES ask

40.00¢

ΣΣ sides

99.50%

⚖arb gap

0.500pp

$24h vol $

$1.1k

◐open interest $

$989.0k

◳history points

0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker: KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD
Event ticker: KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB
YES bid / ask: 39.00¢ / 40.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask: 60.00¢ / 61.00¢
Last YES: 39.00¢
Σ-sides: 99.50% (arb gap 0.50pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h: $1.07k
Volume total: $572.74k
Open interest: $988.99k
Liquidity: $0.00
Close time: 2027-02-01T15:00:00Z · 226.1d from now
Status: active

§3 · Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (599 bars · effective 347249 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 226.1 d · σ/bar 0.304pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.36ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2379 · n = 599✓ n = 599

μ per bar

-0.002pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.304pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

1.49pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move226d

22.36pp

σ × √5426.218178888888

Terminal variancebinary

0.2379

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

39.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.50pp · ES₉₅ 0.63pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 599

VaR 95%

0.50pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.63pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

7.1pp

peak 42.0¢ → trough 39.0¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

39.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2.564

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+156

$100 wins $156

FractionalUK

1.56 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$156.41

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.965 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.965 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

1.36 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.71 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-20 12:46:42 UTC
Snapshot age: 12.5s
SHA-256 attestation: 1901325cc7fb33af686946c4dba70f4e2e1379850c0143088bf091cbe9053ef0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 599 barsperiods/year ≈ 347.2K

Realized vol (annualised)

439.38%

σ per bar = 0.007456

Mean return (annualised)

-1470.16%

μ per bar = -0.000042

Sharpe (rf=0)

-3.35

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

7.14%

peak 0.42 → trough 0.39 over 373 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxbalancepowercombo-27feb-dd/risk · same metrics, JSON