KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SPORTS

Will Kamil Majchrzak win the ATP S-Hertogenbosch?

YES · live
99.0¢
NO · live
1.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxatp-26sherto-maj · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2896.13%
max drawdown
70.59%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
9.13%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
4.89%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
62.25%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.28
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.28
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
302
store
spread
100.5 bps
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxatp-26sherto-maj/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH620ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
99.0¢
NO · live
1.0¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 99.0%NO 1.0%YES99.0%99.00¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
NO
1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
620ms
·ticker
KXATP-26SHERTO-MAJ
▲YES bid
99.00¢
▲YES ask
100.00¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$796.3k
◐open interest $
$385.3k
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXATP-26SHERTO-MAJ
Event ticker
KXATP-26SHERTO
YES bid / ask
99.00¢ / 100.00¢ (spread 1.00pp)
NO bid / ask
0.00¢ / 1.00¢
Last YES
99.00¢
Σ-sides
100.00% (arb gap 0.00pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$796.28k
Volume total
$797.53k
Open interest
$385.34k
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2026-07-18T09:00:00Z · 33.7d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If Kamil Majchrzak wins the 2026 ATP S-Hertogenbosch professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (302 bars · effective 350364 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 33.7 d · σ/bar 4.894pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 139.20ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 302✓ n = 302
μ per bar
+0.239pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
4.894pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
23.98pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move34d
139.20pp
σ × √808.8061986111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0099
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
99.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 7.81pp · ES₉₅ 9.85pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.239pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.15✓ n = 302
VaR 95%
7.81pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
9.85pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
70.6pp
peak 85.0¢ → trough 25.0¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
99.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.010
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-9900
risk $9900 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.01 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1.01
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 99.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.081 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.081 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.01 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
6.64 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:11:37 UTC
Snapshot age
620ms
SHA-256 attestation
05b58d17ae27fa88f2af185f556b01ec3c936c4dd7356ba02b9f0ca907e71951 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 302 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.4K
Realized vol (annualised)
6227.41%
σ per bar = 0.105208
Mean return (annualised)
151236.37%
μ per bar = 0.004317
Sharpe (rf=0)
24.29
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
70.59%
peak 0.85 → trough 0.25 over 5 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxatp-26sherto-maj/risk · same metrics, JSON