KALSHI · CFTC-CLEARED BINARY CONTRACT · SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

YES · live
12.8¢
NO · live
87.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

kalshi · kxaliens-27 · fresh · feed 48s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 5.79%
realized vol (ann.)
104.95%
max drawdown
8.96%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.06%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.23%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
94.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
764
store
spread
239.0 bps
24h Δ
5.79%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +5.79%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/kalshi-kxaliens-27/bundle · venue execution: kalshi →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING48.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
12.8¢
NO · live
87.5¢
YES price · live 24h (Kalshi candlesticks)
no history
no history
YES / NO split · live
YES 12.8%NO 87.2%NO87.2%87.45¢ · odds 1/1.14
Σ 100.25% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.25% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.551 / 1.00 bits (55%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
12.8%12.8¢7.81×▬ +0.00pp
NO
87.2%87.5¢1.14×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.25% · arb gap 0.25pp
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
48.3s
·ticker
KXALIENS-27
▲YES bid
12.40¢
▲YES ask
12.70¢
ΣΣ sides
100.25%
⚖arb gap
0.250pp
$24h vol $
$11.0k
◐open interest $
$9.4M
◳history points
0 bars (live)

§1 · Quote

Ticker
KXALIENS-27
Event ticker
KXALIENS-27
YES bid / ask
12.40¢ / 12.70¢ (spread 0.30pp)
NO bid / ask
87.30¢ / 87.60¢
Last YES
12.80¢
Σ-sides
100.25% (arb gap 0.25pp)

§2 · Activity

Volume 24h
$11.02k
Volume total
$3.00M
Open interest
$9.39M
Liquidity
$0.00
Close time
2027-01-01T15:00:00Z · 201.0d from now
Status
active

§3 · Resolution rules

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (764 bars · effective 350659 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§4 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§5 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 201.0 d · σ/bar 0.177pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 12.31ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1116 · n = 764✓ n = 764
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.177pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.87pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move201d
12.31pp
σ × √4822.943419444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.1116
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
12.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§6 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.29pp · ES₉₅ 0.36pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 764
VaR 95%
0.29pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.36pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
9.0pp
peak 13.4¢ → trough 12.2¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§7 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
12.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.813
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+681
$100 wins $681
FractionalUK
6.81 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$681.25
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 12.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§8 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.552 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.552 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.20 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§9 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.elections.kalshi.com
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:02:35 UTC
Snapshot age
48.3s
SHA-256 attestation
215d86ff1dcc437eb2ee7ac3ea5375084ed3f795e3a3be4fa653859cc4aa2691 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 764 barsperiods/year ≈ 350.7K
Realized vol (annualised)
835.24%
σ per bar = 0.014105
Mean return (annualised)
2584.66%
μ per bar = 0.000074
Sharpe (rf=0)
3.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.96%
peak 0.13 → trough 0.12 over 88 bars

/api/asset/kalshi-kxaliens-27/risk · same metrics, JSON